The drama around the timing of the Federal Reserve’s first cuts to the key short-term interest rate continued in last few weeks of the old year and into the first week of the new year. Two months of slowing labor market data, coupled with a change to the wording in...

November Recap and December Outlook After a year in which Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell managed to hold everyone’s attention – again – here we are waiting for the outcome of the last FOMC meeting of the year. A few weeks ago, with the narrative of rates being...

October Recap and November Outlook The Federal Reserve's November meeting went as the market expected: no change in rates. What wasn't expected was the October and early November rollercoaster of bond yields. And by rollercoaster, think Kingda Ka. The ten-year U.S....

September Recap and October Outlook The outcome of the Fed's meeting in September was to hold rates at the current level. It has been described as a "hawkish pause," and the Fed was clear in post-meeting remarks and statements that one more increase is still possible...

August Recap and September Outlook For most of the summer, increasingly positive data releases fed into the market’s upbeat view of the economy. This seemed to contradict the consistent messaging from the Federal Reserve that it isn’t done raising rates and inflation...

July Recap and August Outlook Data releases in July told a story of a stronger-than-expected economy, with headline CPI falling and the labor market remaining robust. The doom-and-gloom scenario of an all-but-inevitable recession seemed to be replaced by something...