October Recap and November Outlook The Federal Reserve's November meeting went as the market expected: no change in rates. What wasn't expected was the October and early November rollercoaster of bond yields. And by rollercoaster, think Kingda Ka. The ten-year U.S....

September Recap and October Outlook The outcome of the Fed's meeting in September was to hold rates at the current level. It has been described as a "hawkish pause," and the Fed was clear in post-meeting remarks and statements that one more increase is still possible...

August Recap and September Outlook For most of the summer, increasingly positive data releases fed into the market’s upbeat view of the economy. This seemed to contradict the consistent messaging from the Federal Reserve that it isn’t done raising rates and inflation...

July Recap and August Outlook Data releases in July told a story of a stronger-than-expected economy, with headline CPI falling and the labor market remaining robust. The doom-and-gloom scenario of an all-but-inevitable recession seemed to be replaced by something...

June Recap and July Outlook The Fed finally hit “pause” on interest rate increases in June after fifteen months and ten consecutive rate hikes. The “dot-plot” indicated that Fed officials think two further increases may be necessary in 2023, and it’s become clear that...

May Recap and June Outlook The debt ceiling negotiations dominated headlines throughout the month. By month end, the deal was hammered out and on its way through Congress to end up on the president's desk before "X-Date" when the Treasury ran out of money.  The...