A Historic Election Removes Some Uncertainty October Recap and November Outlook An election season...
Market Commentary
Read the latest market insights by the HUB Investment Research Team.
October Market Commentary A Volatile Start to the End of the Year?
A Volatile Start to the End of the Year? September Recap and October Outlook September equity markets ended the month in positive territory, but with volatility increased. The VIX, the markets “fear index” closed higher than last month, at 16.73, up from 15.00....
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December Market Commentary: Rates: Lower and Sooner?
November Recap and December Outlook After a year in which Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell managed to hold everyone’s attention – again – here we are waiting for the outcome of the last FOMC meeting of the year. A few weeks ago, with the narrative of rates being...
November Market Commentary: Powell on Rate Cuts: Nope.
October Recap and November Outlook The Federal Reserve's November meeting went as the market expected: no change in rates. What wasn't expected was the October and early November rollercoaster of bond yields. And by rollercoaster, think Kingda Ka. The ten-year U.S....
October Market Commentary: A New Era for the Economy Creates Uncertainty
September Recap and October Outlook The outcome of the Fed's meeting in September was to hold rates at the current level. It has been described as a "hawkish pause," and the Fed was clear in post-meeting remarks and statements that one more increase is still possible...
September Market Commentary – A Raft of Reassuring Data – or Not?
August Recap and September Outlook For most of the summer, increasingly positive data releases fed into the market’s upbeat view of the economy. This seemed to contradict the consistent messaging from the Federal Reserve that it isn’t done raising rates and inflation...
August Market Commentary – The Sunny Side of the Street?
July Recap and August Outlook Data releases in July told a story of a stronger-than-expected economy, with headline CPI falling and the labor market remaining robust. The doom-and-gloom scenario of an all-but-inevitable recession seemed to be replaced by something...
July Market Commentary – The Fed Takes a Micro-Holiday
June Recap and July Outlook The Fed finally hit “pause” on interest rate increases in June after fifteen months and ten consecutive rate hikes. The “dot-plot” indicated that Fed officials think two further increases may be necessary in 2023, and it’s become clear that...
June Market Commentary – A Hot Labor Market Complicates the Fed’s Timeline
May Recap and June Outlook The debt ceiling negotiations dominated headlines throughout the month. By month end, the deal was hammered out and on its way through Congress to end up on the president's desk before "X-Date" when the Treasury ran out of money. The...
May Market Commentary – The End of a Fed Cycle?
April Recap and May Outlook The biggest news in the Fed’s statement after their meeting on May 3 was what it didn’t say. The Fed’s statement from March contained the language “the Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate” for the...
April Market Commentary – All’s Well That Ends Well? Not So Fast…
March recap and April Outlook Equity markets, using the S&P 500 index return as a proxy, at first glance appear to have shrugged off the mid-month drama of multiple domestic, regional bank failures and the forced sale of a massive Swiss bank. Attention was...
March Market Commentary – Why Aren’t Rate Hikes Working?
February Recap and March Outlook If there's an aphorism for February that you could embroider on a pillow, it would be, "The more things change, the more they remain the same." Markets appear to have finally started taking Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's...